In the previous two tests , New Zealand have faced a few dilemmas regarding the composition and balance of their side .Firstly - whether they should keep playing four specialist fast bowlers - a tactic which helped them immensely against Australia . But again , it weakens the batting considerably , the lower middle order
becomes more vulnerable to collapse.
Secondly - if the captain and the coach of the New Zealand team decide to have four genuine quicks in the eleven , they have to prepare a bowling friendly pitch ( a green pitch to be specific) . They will have to think twice before taking the decision since South Africa arguably has the best pace attack in the world at
the moment which can easily outgun the weak New Zealand batting line up .This is certainly how it's turned out so far - New Zealand have dismissed South Africa for 238 and 253, but have been unable to turn that into any sort of dominance in either match because New Zealand's batsmen have been so severely outclassed. Hence the captain has some important decisions to make before the test. If you think those two are the only problems New Zealand are going to face , you are wrong . They split up the Guptill/McCullum opening pair they now seem to be desperately going round the houses before they put them back together, instead of just doing it and accepting they’ll look a bit silly. Kane Williamson is everything but convincing . The youngster who has been given a fairly long rope hasnt matched the expectations , he batted at three in Australia but now he has been asked to bat at five . Jesse Ryder is still out for disciplinary reasons.
Now New Zealand go into the third Test needing to win, but at the exact time that they require an aggressive approach they have been forced to temper it and pick an extra batsman. Had Dean Brownlie been fit for the first two Tests then they probably would have had him at six from the beginning. Now it all feels a little too late, but Brownlie should add an extra all-round element and comes into the side on the back of a half-century for his domestic team Canterbury. Their other change, which sees Daniel Flynn replace Rob Nicol, also feels like too little, too late and could be a case of a square peg in a round hole. Nicol was hopelessly out of his depth, to the point where even his bizarre dismissal in the second innings at Seddon Park could hardly be termed unlucky.
Flynn comes in with previous success in Test cricket - before he got injured in 2009, he was becoming one of New Zealand's tougher Test batsmen to dismiss - but may now be asked to open the batting. He has only done so once in his 29 Test innings to date (he made a duck in the fourth innings in Galle), but he is made of stern stuff. After all, this is a batsman who lost two teeth to a James Anderson bouncer in just his second Test but has not been cowed by the experience.
Although there has been some debate as to whether Flynn or Brendon McCullum should open, when all is said and done New Zealand should have a stronger and more balanced side, who will be more confident of at least holding their own.There is less to say about South Africa, who will go into the match with the same side that played the first two Tests. Theirs has become a settled XI over the course of this tour, which is providing them with a good base from which they could attain the top ranking.The extra two days off after the Hamilton Test seem to have been used well, with the squad scattering around New Zealand to explore the country. Given the compressed nature of this series, a break from the cricket grind was probably needed.
The bowlers will struggle to top their performance in Hamilton, particularly with the windy conditions in Wellington set to provide them with a tough challenge - something they have spoken about at length. If there is a landmark to keep an eye on during the Test, it's Vernon Philander's bid to reach 50 wickets. He needs five more, and if he does it in this match he will be the fastest to 50 since the 1800s.If there is one area of the game that the Proteas will want to improve though, it is their susceptibility to batting collapses - especially in the first innings. It's something that will cost them Test matches against stronger opponents.
Key Men
New Zealand: Martin Guptill has been out of form, enduring a horrific second half of the season after a prolific first, so whoever bats with him needs to provide more solidity to give the middle order something to work with. That puts added pressure on Daniel Flynn, but he's a gutsy batsman who should be able to handle it.
South Africa: He's been forced to play second fiddle to Vernon Philander for most of the season, but Dale Steyn is bound to grab a big haul at some stage. He bowled with better rhythm in Hamilton and rediscovered his pace, and since he can expect to bowl with the wind at the Basin, his speed could be too much for the New Zealand batsmen here.
Last Five Head-To-Head Results
March 2012, Second Test: South Africa won by nine wickets at Hamilton
March 2012, First Test: Match drawn at Dunedin
November 2007, Second Test: South Africa won by an innings and 59 runs at Centurion
November 2007, First Test: South Africa won by 358 runs at the Wanderers
May 2006, Third Test: South Africa won by four wickets at the Wanderers
Prediction
New Zealand's batting should be strengthened, and it sounds as if we will have another pitch where there isn't a great deal of assistance for the bowlers. Throw in a bit of rain, and all the signs seem to point to a draw.
Probable Teams
New Zealand: Martin Guptill, Daniel Flynn, Brendon McCullum, Ross Taylor (capt), Kane Williamson, Dean Brownlie, Daniel Vettori, Kruger van Wyk (wk), Doug Bracewell, Mark Gillespie, Chris Martin.
South Africa: Graeme Smith (capt), Alviro Petersen, Hashim Amla, Jacques Kallis, AB de Villiers, Jacques Rudolph, Mark Boucher (wk), Vernon Philander, Dale Steyn, Imran Tahir, Morne Morkel.
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